Lu Dadao of the Chinese Academy of Sciences warns that oversized, underused HSR infrastructure has ignored basic economic logic, weakened public finances, and derailed regional planning.
Dr. Lu Dadao has provided an extremely interesting and comprehensive view and analysis of the HSR system in his country. As a member of the initial group of scholars invited work in the PRC in 1979, I recall taking a hand shoveled coal steam train from Beijing to Hefei and across to Guangzhou during my tenure there. Dr. Lu's comments on overcapacity make sense according to conventional economics. I would differ with him on the deeper implications of high speed rail and maglev for the PRC. As a U.S. citizen I have lived with the growth of suburban automobile based transportation and the change from propeller driven aircraft to jets, each with its untoward impacts on social integration and sense of community. The PRC was founded on profound and subtle principles of social commitment, obligation to the community, and consciousness of national destiny - elements the West has long forsaken with obvious results. With time, the exercise of developing and championing the HSR and maglev systems will be vindicated and become a model for the world. The key, which Dr. Lu has overlooked is the spirit of the enterprise. Despite the clear opportunities for misusing funds or overreaching practical bounds, there is an inherent virtue to creating public spaces and transport corridors with an intent to promoting communal interchange with minimal environmental load utilizing pioneering technology which will carry forward into the next century. Dr. Lu advocates for taking a reasonable path with regard to balancing real need against provision of transportation resources and suggests restrictions and redeployment of resources accordingly. In doing so, he is inadvertently advancing the proliferation of automobile and aircraft based transportation networks, both of which erode common humanity. By creating architectural and engineering marvels, temples if you will, associated with HSR based transport, the PRC is building a vison of the future for its people, guiding them toward an integrated humane future. If one is contemplating placing restrictions on investments in public infrastructure, perhaps limiting roadways and air transport would be the most practical long term means of achieving real efficiency. Los Angeles is a case in point, with enormous amounts of human time lost in automobile traffic over the past century, and it is likely that Beijing and Shanghai are falling into the same unreasonable pit. HSR hubs, reached by ever more sophisticated local high speed transport, will be the mark of the future globally with the PRC modeling this truly remarkable system for us all.
I agree with much of Mr Smith’s arguments. I sense that China builds for the future of the country, also as a hedge against coming economic uncertainty. Nothing wrong with making hay while the sun shine, especially with current surpluses. Do not discount the uplifting in spirit of citizens of China’s interiors, who must see tangible evidence that they are not left behind.
1. HSR can be a lot more profitable (on an operating basis) than you think. Even the Hokuriku Shinkansen, which doesn't go to any city with more than a million people (except Tokyo), has a very good operating ratio.
2. I strongly agree that Chinese HSR needs better integration with local transit, and less grand stations. Tokyo Station's Shinkansen concourse is over an order of magnitude smaller than Chongqing East, yet serves the same amount of people as Shanghai Hongqiao.
(Tokyo station shinkansen concourse size judging from the map linked, + google maps measuring tool between Yaesu Central and Marunouchi Central exits, Tokyo station's Shinkansen concourse is some tens of thousands of square meters in size: https://www.jreast.co.jp/e/stations/e1039.html)
3. When I went to Huizhou, the HSR stations/lines there seemed to be doing fine. The trains were full and there were a nonzero amount of people at the stations. It seems like China Railways has a lot of room to raise fares, do dynamic pricing, or do price discrimination.
4. HSR New Towns betray a misunderstanding of the reason why cities and suburbs exist. People go to cities because there are jobs. Suburbs exist because people want cheaper/more living space while retaining access to jobs. Most HSR new towns don't meet the first demand, and meet the latter demand no better than normal development.
5. Japanese construction was better in the past, but nowadays, China probably does not have anything to learn from Japan; many new projects are full of tunnels and bridges. Worst of all, the new Hokuriku Shinkansen extension is *projected* to be as expensive as the HS2 in the UK and over 2x as expensive as California HSR.
That said, Japanese high-speed operations are still probably the best in the world, and their integration with local transit is also great.
6. The government can't create new jobs in the long run, it can only accelerate the recovery from depressions or move jobs between parts of the economy. It gives me some schadenfreude to see that other countries also have economically illiterate policy academics.
7. Japan's current maglev troubles are political, not technical. There's one NIMBY governor that refused to let construction go through his prefecture, delaying the thing by 7+ years
8. I have a hard time taking seriously anybody who talks about negative health effects from radio waves.
Dr. Lu Dadao has provided an extremely interesting and comprehensive view and analysis of the HSR system in his country. As a member of the initial group of scholars invited work in the PRC in 1979, I recall taking a hand shoveled coal steam train from Beijing to Hefei and across to Guangzhou during my tenure there. Dr. Lu's comments on overcapacity make sense according to conventional economics. I would differ with him on the deeper implications of high speed rail and maglev for the PRC. As a U.S. citizen I have lived with the growth of suburban automobile based transportation and the change from propeller driven aircraft to jets, each with its untoward impacts on social integration and sense of community. The PRC was founded on profound and subtle principles of social commitment, obligation to the community, and consciousness of national destiny - elements the West has long forsaken with obvious results. With time, the exercise of developing and championing the HSR and maglev systems will be vindicated and become a model for the world. The key, which Dr. Lu has overlooked is the spirit of the enterprise. Despite the clear opportunities for misusing funds or overreaching practical bounds, there is an inherent virtue to creating public spaces and transport corridors with an intent to promoting communal interchange with minimal environmental load utilizing pioneering technology which will carry forward into the next century. Dr. Lu advocates for taking a reasonable path with regard to balancing real need against provision of transportation resources and suggests restrictions and redeployment of resources accordingly. In doing so, he is inadvertently advancing the proliferation of automobile and aircraft based transportation networks, both of which erode common humanity. By creating architectural and engineering marvels, temples if you will, associated with HSR based transport, the PRC is building a vison of the future for its people, guiding them toward an integrated humane future. If one is contemplating placing restrictions on investments in public infrastructure, perhaps limiting roadways and air transport would be the most practical long term means of achieving real efficiency. Los Angeles is a case in point, with enormous amounts of human time lost in automobile traffic over the past century, and it is likely that Beijing and Shanghai are falling into the same unreasonable pit. HSR hubs, reached by ever more sophisticated local high speed transport, will be the mark of the future globally with the PRC modeling this truly remarkable system for us all.
I agree with much of Mr Smith’s arguments. I sense that China builds for the future of the country, also as a hedge against coming economic uncertainty. Nothing wrong with making hay while the sun shine, especially with current surpluses. Do not discount the uplifting in spirit of citizens of China’s interiors, who must see tangible evidence that they are not left behind.
This is an extremely interesting read, thank you so much
I have a lot of reactions.
1. HSR can be a lot more profitable (on an operating basis) than you think. Even the Hokuriku Shinkansen, which doesn't go to any city with more than a million people (except Tokyo), has a very good operating ratio.
https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/193269
2. I strongly agree that Chinese HSR needs better integration with local transit, and less grand stations. Tokyo Station's Shinkansen concourse is over an order of magnitude smaller than Chongqing East, yet serves the same amount of people as Shanghai Hongqiao.
(Tokyo station shinkansen concourse size judging from the map linked, + google maps measuring tool between Yaesu Central and Marunouchi Central exits, Tokyo station's Shinkansen concourse is some tens of thousands of square meters in size: https://www.jreast.co.jp/e/stations/e1039.html)
3. When I went to Huizhou, the HSR stations/lines there seemed to be doing fine. The trains were full and there were a nonzero amount of people at the stations. It seems like China Railways has a lot of room to raise fares, do dynamic pricing, or do price discrimination.
4. HSR New Towns betray a misunderstanding of the reason why cities and suburbs exist. People go to cities because there are jobs. Suburbs exist because people want cheaper/more living space while retaining access to jobs. Most HSR new towns don't meet the first demand, and meet the latter demand no better than normal development.
5. Japanese construction was better in the past, but nowadays, China probably does not have anything to learn from Japan; many new projects are full of tunnels and bridges. Worst of all, the new Hokuriku Shinkansen extension is *projected* to be as expensive as the HS2 in the UK and over 2x as expensive as California HSR.
That said, Japanese high-speed operations are still probably the best in the world, and their integration with local transit is also great.
https://x.com/JRUrbaneNetwork/status/1822209790392549481
https://transitcosts.com/high-speed-rail-preliminary-data-analysis/
6. The government can't create new jobs in the long run, it can only accelerate the recovery from depressions or move jobs between parts of the economy. It gives me some schadenfreude to see that other countries also have economically illiterate policy academics.
7. Japan's current maglev troubles are political, not technical. There's one NIMBY governor that refused to let construction go through his prefecture, delaying the thing by 7+ years
8. I have a hard time taking seriously anybody who talks about negative health effects from radio waves.
point 8 is great.