CIIS analysis: The road ahead of left-wing governance in Latin America is long and difficult

And stay tuned for some fascinating content on Brazilian President-elect Lula.

This is Part II of a three-part series on Latin America on the eve of a new Presidency in Brazil. Two days ago, Pekingnology translated a recent analysis by Shouguo Yang, Director, Institute of Latin American Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR).

CICIR LatAm Director on the rise and the prospect of the left-wing in Latin America

Today Pekingnology is sharing another analysis of Latin America. It was written by 章婕妤 Jieyu Zhang,  中国国际问题研究院拉美和加勒比研究所助理研究员 Assistant Research Fellow at the Department for Latin American and Caribbean Studies, China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), the in-house thinktank of China’s Foreign Ministry. The piece was published in 大众日报 Dazhong Daily, the flagship newspaper of Shandong Province, on November 10, 2022, and then CIIS’s WeChat blog.

Pekingnology will publish something directly related to Brazilian President-elect Lula in the next two days. The content has technically been on the record for quite some time but practically unnoticed in English.

Photo by L'odyssée Belle on Unsplash

拉美左翼执政前景道阻且长

The road ahead of left-wing governance in Latin America is long and difficult

Recently, with the end of the Brazilian election, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party won the presidency. Since 2018, the top six Latin American economies and the most populous countries, including Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Chile, Colombia, and Brazil, have been incorporated into the left-wing political spectrum. Nearly 90% of Latin America's land area and about 85% of the population and economy is now under left-wing governments. The collective rise of the Latin American left appears to repeat the golden age of the first wave of "left-wing waves" in Latin America at the beginning of this century. However, the political and economic pattern of the world today has undergone tremendous changes. There is new blood in the Latin American left, whose ideas and original intentions are no longer consistent with their older generation.

If we compare the two "left-wing waves," the first obvious difference is the timing of their emergence, with the former being closer to a product at the right place and at the right time.

At the beginning of the 21st century, two major events in the international community laid the foundation for a favorable external environment for the consolidation and development of left-wing governments in Latin America.

One was China's official accession to the World Trade Organization, through which the huge foreign trade demand of China's economy and society was released. The rich resources of Latin America were successfully connected with China's vast consumer market. At the same time, benefiting from the rising commodity prices in the global market, Latin America saw steady economic growth and a significant increase in social welfare, thus entering a "golden decade" of development.

Second, the United States suffered from the September 11 attacks, which forced the US foreign policy to undergo a major adjustment. Western Hemisphere affairs took a back seat, giving the emerging left wing in Latin America a window of opportunity to grow.

The current Latin American left-wing faces a more complex and volatile situation at home and abroad than it did twenty years ago. On the one hand, the international situation is not optimistic, with the spread of COVID-19, the crisis in Ukraine, and the ensuing climate, energy, and food crisis. At the same time, the Biden administration, in the "Interim National Security Strategy Guidance," listed the Western Hemisphere as "vital national interests" and intends to open a second battlefield in Latin America to compete with China and Russia.

On the other hand, their domestic situations are grim since the shadow of economic recession, inflation, and debt crisis is still lingering. The "anti-incumbency" sentiment of the general public against the occupants of government offices is high, and there are waves of protests in society. Compared with the first wave of the "left-wing wave,” the left wing in Latin America seems to be running out of luck.

The second significant difference is that the two waves of the left-wing are considerably different.

First, compared to the previous wave of the radical left and moderate left, the current "left-wing wave" has become significantly less left-leaning. In other words, the left-wing ideological tendency in Latin America has diminished compared to the previous wave.

Nowadays, there is a trend of “left isn’t exactly left and right isn’t exactly right” in the political spectrum of Latin America. The left wing does not exactly reject the right-wing approach in some matters, which earned some of them the name the "new left." Chile's President Gabriel Boric, in office since 2021, and Colombia's President Gustavo Petro, in office since 2022, are among them. Both Boric and Pedro are characterized by their backgrounds and political experiences, but they have an enlightened environmental and foreign policy agenda that is rarely seen on the traditional left.

Vowing to make Chile "the first truly green state in South America," Boric actively supported and participated in the signing of the Escazú Agreement, the first and only regional international treaty on environmental protection in Latin America. His government openly welcomes foreign investment in Chile's national lithium company, which will be established by the end of the year.

Pedro, for his part, is determined to transform the country's unsustainable economic growth by limiting fossil energy extraction and exports and vigorously developing a green economy such as tourism. The government has also broken out of the constraints of its status as a close U.S. ally to rebuild relations with Venezuela.

Secondly, there are different voices within the current "left-wing wave," and the differences between the left wings of different countries are more obvious. For example, unlike the Lopez administration in Mexico and the Fernandez administration in Argentina, which strongly support Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, the new Chilean government has maintained a hard-line attitude toward Venezuela and Nicaragua and has kept its distance from the Cuban government.

Although the current Latin American left wing has more differences from its predecessors, it also faces similar difficulties and challenges in governance.

First, the honeymoon period for new left-wing governments is generally short, and their public support took the shape of a "roller coaster.” According to the Americas Barometer 2021 report, the average government approval rate in Latin America was 40% in 2020, and the average presidential approval rate was 32%.

The second is the intensification of the opposition between the administrative and the legislative branches, as well as the increase of domestic political polarization. In most left-wing governing countries, the left wing does not have a majority in their parliaments, which means that it will be much more difficult to promote relevant policies, and administrative efficiency and policy quality are difficult to guarantee.

Third, the competition and cooperation situation involving the United States has become more complicated. At present, the new left-wing governments in Latin America have shown great interest in reorganizing regional integration and promoting regional cooperation. The governments of Mexico, Chile, and Argentina are interested in assuming leadership roles in actively participating in Latin American regional affairs and playing an instrumental role in the activities of sub-regional organizations.

However, the U.S. still hopes to achieve the purpose of "divide and rule" in Latin America by provoking ideology-based trouble when it comes to Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. It is not happy to see the revitalization and development of Latin American integration.

The road ahead of left-wing governance in Latin America is long and difficult. (Enditem)

Again, a recent analysis by Shouguo Yang, Director, Institute of Latin American Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR).

CICIR LatAm Director on the rise and the prospect of the left-wing in Latin America

Pekingnology will publish something directly related to Brazilian President-elect Lula in the next two days. The content has technically been on the record for quite some time but practically unnoticed in English.