Haolan Wang's analysis on the attempted assassination of Donald Trump

In the Chinese-speaking world, I like Haolan Wang’s “America Watching” for many reasons. First of all, because he doesn’t work for Chinese mainland institutions, his quality work and rising visibility repudiate the Chinese conventional wisdom that only someone from a “danwei” - an institution, most often a traditional state-run thinktank or university in the state apparatus - has credibility. Secondly, having just obtained a J.D. immediately not long after a Bachelor’s Degree, the productive writer is much younger than the typical gray-haired men who frequent Chinese-speaking platforms. Last but not least, his analysis is grounded in facts, not necessarily the Chinese mainland lens that often, unfortunately, taints the view of the United States.

Therefore I’m very pleased to translate Haolan’s Chinese-language analysis of the biggest news of the day to English and share it with you all.

Haolan Wang is a Research Assistant at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. His writing and research interest focus on American Politics and Elections, U.S. Foreign Policy, U.S.-China relationship and East Asian Security. A Native of Tianjin, he holds a Juris Doctor from Boston College Law School and a Bachelor’s Degree of Political Science and History from Boston College and has written many columns and analysis on U.S. Politics for major media outlets in Mainland China and Hong Kong.

特朗普遇刺未遂带来的政坛变动

The Attempted Assassination of Trump and Its Political Repercussions

1. The attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania marks the first instance of a former president/presidential candidate being injured in an assassination attempt since Ronald Reagan in 1981. This event makes Trump one of the three presidents in U.S. history to have survived an assassination attempt with injuries.

2. The identity of the assailant remains unclear. Some reports suggest the perpetrator is a white male in his twenties from Pennsylvania, but his specific motives and political inclinations are unknown.

3. Trump himself was not seriously harmed, only suffering a minor ear injury from shattered teleprompter glass. However, photos from the scene indicate that the shooter missed hitting Trump's head by a narrow margin.

4. Both political parties in the U.S. have condemned the act of political violence and offered prayers for Trump and the other victims. Some right-wing politicians have blamed the Democratic rhetoric of labeling Trump as a fascist for inciting the assassination attempt.

5. Following the incident, President Joe Biden delivered a speech condemning political violence and extended his condolences to Trump. The two subsequently had a phone conversation.

6. Politically, many are comparing Trump's survival and his robust response to what they term the "3/19 moment" of American politics, drawing parallels to the 2004 Taiwan leadership election eve shooting that swayed the results in favor of the Democratic Progressive Party candidate. Some declare that the outcome of this year's U.S. election is now certain, predicting a landslide victory for Trump. However, such conclusions might be premature. The deep-rooted political polarization in the U.S. means that an overwhelming victory is unlikely under almost any political circumstances. The unexpected assassination attempt underscores the persistent uncertainties in American politics and elections, warranting continued observation of the election's trajectory.

7. In the short term, Trump is likely to gain considerable "sympathy votes," potentially boosting his personal approval ratings. However, such temporary polling increases may not sustain until the November elections.

8. The Democratic Party, which has been embroiled in internal conflicts and debates over potentially replacing the incumbent President Biden, might see these discussions subside due to the assassination attempt on Trump. The shift in the news cycle could help Biden regain his footing amidst an otherwise unfavorable media environment. The prevalent pessimism within the party might become more pronounced, possibly leading to a resigned acceptance of a likely defeat without further efforts to replace Biden.

9. In the coming period, American politics might enter a phase of relative cooling, with the Democratic Party likely to reduce direct attacks on Trump and his ideology, thereby losing a crucial tool for internal party unity. On the other hand, the Republican Party will need to handle the aftermath of the assassination attempt cautiously, avoiding excessive politicization that could alienate voters. Political advertisements and campaign activities from both parties may enter a temporary adjustment phase.

10. The frequent incidents of political violence and severe social division reflect an underlying systemic crisis in the American democratic system. Political polarization and veto politics have eroded the overall fabric of American elections, leading to a legitimacy crisis where public opinion fails to effectively translate into policy. This has fueled the rise of populism and hate politics. The recurrence of assassination attempts on key political figures, a phenomenon not uncommon in American history, reemerging in the 21st century, is not surprising. It suggests an increasingly extreme political environment and more pronounced voter antagonism in the months leading up to the election and the coming years. Such acts of political violence are likely to become more frequent.

On Saturday, July 13, in Pennsylvania, during the last public campaign rally before the Republican National Convention, former President and Republican presidential candidate Trump was shot in an assassination attempt. Despite being lightly injured, Trump was sent to the hospital for further treatment and examination. According to current news reports, the failed assassination attempt resulted in two deaths, including the assailant, and two critically injured individuals undergoing rescue operations in the hospital. Trump, with only an ear injury, left the hospital briefly and continued his campaign activities in Pennsylvania. He is expected to attend the Republican National Convention next week as planned.

This assassination attempt on Trump is the most severe targeting a president/presidential candidate since Reagan's survival in 1981. Trump has become the seventh president in history to be injured in an assassination attempt, but unlike Abraham Lincoln, James A. Garfield, William McKinley, and John F. Kennedy, who were fatally shot, Trump's light injury makes him comparatively fortunate. In some ways, Trump's assassination attempt parallels that of another Republican president, Theodore Roosevelt, who also faced a sudden attack during a campaign rally and responded strongly.

Although political violence has not been prevalent in recent years, presidential assassination attempts have been relatively frequent over the two-hundred-year history of American politics. At least 19 assassination attempts have targeted U.S. presidents and major party presidential candidates. In the 21st century, several presidents have faced varying degrees of security threats. Undoubtedly, the assassination attempt on Trump is the most threatening since a grenade thrown at President George W. Bush in 2005 failed to detonate. While Trump suffered only a minor injury from the shattered teleprompter glass, photos show that the assailant was inches away from a fatal shot to Trump's head.

Currently, the suspect is identified as a white male in his twenties from Pennsylvania. However, due to being shot dead by the Secret Service, his exact identity, potential motives, and political inclinations remain unclear and await further investigation.

Political Impact

Following the attempted assassination, politicians from both parties issued statements condemning political violence and offering prayers for Trump and the injured rally participants. An unusual scene of "harmony" emerged in American politics. President Biden, speaking from his home in Delaware, addressed the nation, condemning the political violence and offering condolences. He returned to the White House ahead of schedule to handle the unexpected event and had a historic phone conversation with Trump. Biden's campaign team and the Democratic Party subsequently announced a suspension of all future campaign activities and withdrew their campaign ads, opting for a cooling-off period.

However, in the deeply polarized and contentious current American political landscape, this brief moment of harmony also saw many discordant voices. While some Democrats expressed extreme regret over Trump's survival, opportunistic Republicans seized the moment to politicize the assassination attempt. For instance, Ohio Republican Senator JD Vance, a likely candidate for Trump's vice president, publicly accused Democrats of inciting violence through their rhetoric of labeling Trump a fascist and portraying his election as a threat to the U.S. political system. Such attempts to politicize the assassination attempt are expected to persist within both parties.

The assassination attempt's impact on the 2024 election remains uncertain. Some in the Chinese-speaking world have likened Trump's survival and resilience to the "3/19 moment" in American politics, referencing the 2004 Taiwan election-eve shooting that influenced the election outcome. They claim this year's U.S. election is now decided, with Trump set for an overwhelming victory.

However, this comparison is flawed. Firstly, Taiwan and the United States are two completely different political environments. Secondly, the timing does not allow for a direct comparison. The 319 incident occurred on the eve of the election, which can be considered the last sudden event directly affecting the public's psychology before the election. In contrast, the attempted assassination of Trump happened in mid-July, four months before the November election. There could still be many more black swan or “grey rhino” events closer to the election. In other words, the U.S. election remains highly uncertain, with many potential outcomes that could affect the election's direction. This assassination attempt may not be the decisive factor in this year's election.

In the short term, Trump will undoubtedly gain a lot of sympathy points from surviving the assassination attempt, and his personal approval rating may further increase. However, this short-term boost in polls may not last until the November election. After the assassination attempt on Reagan, his approval rating initially soared by 22 points, but it soon fell back to pre-attack levels and did not prevent the Republicans from losing in the 1982 midterm elections. In the current deeply polarized political landscape of the U.S., where the bases of both parties are very stable, most voters view issues through the lens of their party and ideological self-recognition. It is difficult for a sudden event to fundamentally change their views.

Over the past few years, several political events, whether it was the 2016 Access Hollywood tape or the 2021 storming of the Capitol, have shown that most Americans may temporarily adjust their emotions due to certain events, but ultimately they return to their respective camps. This does not mean that sudden events do not affect some voters and ultimately determine the direction of the election—because in the current closely contested environment, slight differences can turn the election. However, it is clear that the attempted assassination of Trump will not end this election prematurely but will likely solidify Trump's already leading position. Whether Trump can maintain this stable advantage over the next four months will depend on the interactions between the two parties and other potential changes. After all, the sudden occurrence of this assassination attempt somewhat discredits those who declared the election over after the first presidential debate two weeks ago. If such a major event can emerge two weeks after the debate, who knows what other dramatic changes may happen in the next four months?

Other Implications

This assassination attempt, in addition to directly affecting Trump's election prospects, will undoubtedly impact his opponent Biden and the Democrats' situation. Two weeks ago, after the presidential debate, Biden was plunged into a crisis due to his poor performance, with internal party voices questioning him. The Democratic party elites were planning a collective ouster, but the assassination attempt seems to have given Biden a chance to catch his breath and weather the political crisis. The shift in the news cycle helps Biden escape the unfavorable media environment, relatively allowing him to regain his footing. If the Democrats can get through this news cycle, the internal "anti-Biden" forces will miss the time and space to operate within the party by the time the Democratic National Convention is held in August.

On the other hand, Trump's assassination attempt may cause the already widespread pessimism within the Democratic Party to worsen due to the stimulus of this new external event, resigning to a defeatist attitude and giving up on replacing Biden. In other words, if Trump is already seen as unbeatable, replacing Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris or any other Democrat to run against Trump would be futile. Therefore, instead of spending energy replacing Biden, they might focus on the congressional elections and long-term planning for the 2028 election. Whether their judgment is correct can only be verified by time.

Ultimately, the frequent political violence and severe social division reflect an institutional crisis within the U.S. democratic system. Political polarization and veto politics have eroded the fabric of U.S. elections, leading to a legitimacy crisis where public opinion cannot effectively translate into policy, thereby fostering the rise of populism and hate politics. The reoccurrence of the assassination of key political figures, which has frequently happened in U.S. history, is not surprising in the 21st century. For the increasingly extreme political environment and the more severe voter division in the four months before the election and the coming years, this kind of political violence is likely to occur more frequently.

In summary, this attempted assassination is a milestone in this year's tumultuous and uncertain election but will not be the definitive factor in this long electoral battle. There could still be many “black swan” events closer to the election, adding new uncertainties. Given these unpredictable events, it is best to avoid overly definitive judgments. Four years ago, Biden was leading Trump by ten percentage points in the polls at this time, and Hillary was leading Trump by seven points, but in the end, one lost narrowly and the other won narrowly. This shows that the presidential election is not decided in July. The U.S. will not completely rid itself of political polarization due to one assassination. Although the possibility of a landslide victory cannot be ruled out, it is highly unlikely.

It can be said that Trump's calm and tough performance during this assassination crisis will inject more momentum into his already slightly advantageous election prospects in the short term. The experience of being assassinated will make it difficult for the Democrats to excessively portray the threat of Trump's election, losing an important tool to unite their voters against a "non-Trump" candidate—whether Biden or another substitute. However, this assassination attempt might make Trump's deeply devoted Republican voters admire their party leader even more but will not easily change the longstanding prejudices of voters who despise Trump.

Trump's challenge has never been his base's support rate and turnout but whether he can change the attitude of some swing voters who previously disliked him and unite around the anti-Trump forces. How these key minority groups view this assassination attempt will be the most worth-watching change in the coming days.