On First Anniversary of the War in Ukraine by CICIR director for Eurasian Studies
Dr. Ding Xiaoxing says if the war drags on and Russia remains in a disadvantageous position, domestic anti-war sentiment may rise, and Putin may come under pressure.
The following is a translation of an article by Dr. Ding Xiaoxing, Director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies at China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a major Chinese state think tank on international relations. This article was first published the CICIR’s WeChat blog on Feb. 24, 2023.
According to his official bio on CICIR website, Dr. Ding earned his BA from the Department of Russian language at Xi'an International Studies University in 1996, an MA from the Department of Sociology at Lomonosov Moscow State University between 1998 and 2000, and a PhD from CICIA in 2010.
In this article, Dr. Ding wrote about the three primary characteristics of the war in Ukraine:
From what was intended by Russia as a "Lightning Warfare" to now apparently a "war of attrition", the conflict has escalated.
The West has intervened comprehensively, turning the conflict to hybrid warfare between Russia and the West.
All parties involved cannot win and cannot afford to lose, yet negotiations remain elusive.
Dr. Ding also raised four major variables that will impact the future of the war:
Can Russia hang in there? Russia is now prepared for a prolonged conflict. Still, if the war drags on and Russia continues to remain in a disadvantageous position, domestic anti-war sentiment may rise. There may be a risk of the elites' unity weakening. Vladimir Putin may face increasing pressure, especially because the 2024 presidential election is approaching.
How long will the West’s aid to Ukraine last?
Will this conflict further escalate?
What are the risks of a nuclear war?
Elsewhere on Jiang Jiang’s Ginger River Review
Thomas des Garets Geddes’s Sinification
Professor Tang Shiping at Fudan University, one of the leading Chinese social scientists internationally, wrote this on January 8, 2009. The piece, for quite some time, was the most popular Pekingnology post ever.
俄乌冲突一周年记
On the First Anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
by 丁晓星 Dr. Ding Xiaoxing
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for an entire year now, and over the year, the conflict has escalated, resulting in a stalemate on both sides. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has been able to gain an overwhelming advantage, and the conflict has evolved into a protracted war. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has exposed the deep-seated security dilemma in Europe. China's "Global Security Initiative Concept Paper" and its stance on finding a political solution to this conflict may have significant and insightful implications for resolving it.
Three major characteristics of the past year:
From "Lightning Warfare" to "war of attrition"” the conflict has escalated.
One year ago, Russia launched a "special military operation", attempting to solve the "Ukrainian problem" that threatened its security in the western part at a relatively small cost, forcing the West to accept the situation on the ground and preventing NATO from further expanding eastward, thus changing the security framework in Europe. However, due to misjudgment in the early stages, insufficient logistical support, and strong resistance from Ukraine, the Russian military was forced to withdraw from Kiev and its surrounding areas.
Subsequently, Russia adjusted its strategy and successively captured important towns such as Mariupol and Donetsk in the north and south of Ukraine, linking eastern and southern Ukraine together, which led directly to Crimea, occupying one-fifth of Ukraine's territory. However, since September 2022, the Ukrainian military launched a counteroffensive and recaptured a large area of eastern Ukraine.
To cope with the disadvantage, Russia issued partial mobilization orders and held a referendum to declare the four eastern provinces as Russian territory. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has then escalated comprehensively. In October 2022, the Crimean Bridge was bombed, and Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing a nationwide power crisis. Since then, the battlefield has been deadlocked, as the Ukrainian military unable to launch a major counterattack and the Russian military without a clear advantage. In 2023, the Russian military launched a spring offensive and made some progress in eastern Ukraine, but the advance was slow, and the two sides engaged in a fierce positional battle in Bachmut. While resisting the Russian military's offensive, the Ukrainian military is also waiting for Western weapons to arrive, biding their time for a counterattack.
Over the past year, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated from Russia's initial small scale, short duration lightning strike to a long-term war of attrition, with huge losses on both sides. According to data from the UK, the number of casualties in the Russian army is estimated to be between 150,000 and 200,000, with an estimated 60,000 military deaths. As Russia clearly has a superior firepower on the battlefield, Ukraine's losses are expected to be higher than Russia's, with casualties exceeding 300,000.
Economically, both Russia and Ukraine have paid a high price. In 2022, the Ukrainian economy fell by a third, with millions of refugees displaced and the country's reconstruction likely to require over a trillion US dollars. In terms of weapons, according to the Ukrainian side, almost half of Russia's tanks have been depleted, and missile stocks are almost used up. Ukraine's Soviet-style weapons have long been running out, relying entirely on Western weapon supplies, with some NATO countries' weapon stocks also running low.
The West has intervened comprehensively, turning the conflict to hybrid warfare between Russia and the West.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not been a conflict between the two countries from the beginning. It has already evolved into a large-scale proxy war between the West, which provides money and weapons, with Ukraine providing manpower, on Ukrainian soil against Russia. Led by the United States, the West has formed an "anti-Russian alliance" consisting of more than 50 countries and regions, imposing sanctions on Russia and supporting Ukraine with military and financial aid. As of early 2023, the West has provided Ukraine with $150 billion in aid, with the United States providing mainly military aid and weapons, and Europe providing mainly financial aid. The West has helped train a large number of Ukrainian soldiers, with the UK alone training 20,000 soldiers for Ukraine each year. Western mercenaries are also active on the Russia-Ukraine conflict battlefield, and the West provides intelligence support and tactical command to Ukraine. The Ukrainian military acknowledged that the targets struck by HIMARS against the Russian army were completely based on coordinates provided by NATO.
The West has launched economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, and cyber warfare against Russia. Over the past year of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the West has imposed more than 10,000 sanctions on Russia, freezing nearly half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves and a large number of overseas assets. The sanctions cover various fields, including but not limited to Russia's finance, military industry, energy, and technology. Multiple Western countries have expelled Russian diplomats, with a few going to downgrade diplomatic relations with Russia, and some EU countries have banned Russian citizens from entering. The West also continues to smear the image of Russia and Putin and tries to incite anti-war sentiment in Russia, creating turmoil within the country.
All parties involved cannot win and cannot afford to lose, yet negotiations remain elusive.
The year-long conflict has demonstrated that neither Russia nor Ukraine can achieve a quick victory. Since annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, Ukraine has been determined to reclaim its territory and prepared for this conflict. After Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, Ukraine has been determined to reclaim the area. Ukraine was evidently prepared for this conflict, and its people have a resolute will to resist and are determined to drive Russia out of Ukrainian territory. Russian involvement in Ukraine has also become a war that they cannot afford to lose after a year of fighting. Some in Russia have even described this conflict as "the Fourth War of Defense." Dmitry Medvedev indicated that if Russia stops the war without a victory, it is possible that Russia will be torn into pieces and cease to exist.
For the West, this is also a battle they cannot afford to lose, as losing would mean that the West would decline rapidly. The Western led international order and the so-called values of "democracy" and "freedom" will thus be shaken. Therefore, as stakes are getting higher for all parties, they can only move forward biting the bullet. As for negotiations, the goals and positions of Russia and Ukraine are far apart. Ukraine demands the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from all of its territories, while Russia considers Crimea and the four eastern Ukrainian oblasts as Russian territory and it is impossible for them to concede. The chance of negotiations is slim.
Four major variables that will impact the future
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine was sudden, but it is unlikely to end abruptly, as it has become a prolonged war. The direction of the conflict in 2023 will depend on four significant variables.
Can Russia hang in there?
Russia is now prepared for a prolonged conflict. In his recent State of the Union Address, Putin emphasized that Russia will "achieve all of its established goals step by step and persistently" and that Russia "is impossible to be defeated on the battlefield." Despite severe sanctions from the West, Russia's economy has held up over the past year, with a GDP decline of only 2.1% in 2022. Russia's energy production remains high, and the grain yield has received a bumper harvest. Russia has also established a Government Coordination Council on the needs of the Russian Federation Armed Forces to ensure a steady supply of weapons for the battles. With a population of 147 million, Russia has only partially mobilized its population. Putin has ordered an increase in the number of armed forces to 1.5 million, so there are sufficient personnel reserves.
However, if the conflict drags on and Russia continues to be in a disadvantageous position, domestic anti-war sentiment may rise, and there may be a risk of the elites' unity weakening. Putin may face increasing pressure, especially because the 2024 presidential election is approaching.
How long will the West’s aid to Ukraine last?
Ukraine has relied heavily on Western assistance to sustain itself in the conflict thus far. Over the past year, the Western stance towards the conflict has evolved, with increasing efforts to "fan the flames". The West initially supported Ukraine's resistance against Russia. Still, when it became clear that the Russian military was not making significant progress, the West began discussing how to defeat Russia to resolve the Russian threat.
As a result, Western military assistance to Ukraine has increased, switching from initial supplies of anti-tank missiles like the Javelin and Spike to later deliveries of the HIMARS rocket system, the Patriot missile defense systems, and the recent provision of large numbers of tanks and armored vehicles. The possibility of providing fighter planes is also under discussion. On February 20, Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv to demonstrate Western support for Ukraine.
However, there are also calls within the West to halt assistance to Ukraine. Russia also believes that the West is not united internally, especially within Europe. Although Europe has made it through the winter of 2022, its energy issues have not been fully resolved, and it remains to be seen how long the West can stay united.
Will this conflict further escalate?
Over the past year, NATO has been involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in various ways but has also been striving to avoid direct confrontation with Russia and has instead relied on proxy warfare to wear down Russia. However, if NATO's provision of military aid to Ukraine continues to push beyond Russia's red lines, there is a possibility that direct conflict between Russia and NATO could occur. For example, if NATO provides fighter jets to Ukraine and once they use airports in NATO countries for takeoff and landing, those airports could become targets for Russian attacks, potentially escalating the conflict.
What are the risks of a nuclear war?
Russian leaders have repeatedly emphasized that they will use "all necessary means" to defend Russia. Medvedev has also stated multiple times that Russia will use nuclear weapons to defend its national interests. Recently, Putin announced that Russia is suspending its compliance with the New START Treaty signed with the United States, and he emphasized that if the US conducts nuclear tests, Russia will "follow suit." This means that the most important arms control treaty between Russia and the US has been suspended, and the risk of a nuclear confrontation between the two nuclear powers continues to rise. In addition, the safety issue in the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has not been resolved, and if Ukraine begins a counter-attack in Zaporizhzhia, the safety risks of the nuclear power plant will increase sharply.
Sun Tzu's The Art of War states: "Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays, There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." There can be no winners in conflicts and wars. Over the past year, China has consistently supported peace and dialogue in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, actively urging peace talks. Recently, the Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, Wang Yi, visited Europe and Russia, further intensifying China's efforts to mediate the Ukraine crisis. On the one-year anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China released “the Global Security Initiative Concept Paper” and “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”, fully elaborating on China's stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As Director Wang Yi said, However complex the issue is, dialogue and consultation should not be abandoned. However intense the dispute is, a political resolution should be pursued. However difficult the situation is, peace should be given a chance. (Enditem)
Again, elsewhere on Jiang Jiang’s Ginger River Review
Thomas des Garets Geddes’s Sinification
Professor Tang Shiping at Fudan University, one of the leading Chinese social scientists internationally, wrote this on January 8, 2009. The piece, for quite some time, was the most popular Pekingnology post ever.