Xi at Trump's inauguration? China likely still weighing options
To go or not to go, that is the question.
CBS News reported exclusively on Dec. 11 that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in early November - shortly after his re-election - invited Chinese President Xi Jinping and other world leaders to attend his inauguration on January 20, 2025. Trump’s transition team spokesperson later confirmed the report.
The next day, Qiu Wenxing, Minister of the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. and formerly Deputy Director-General of the Department of North American and Oceanian Affairs at China’s foreign ministry, was asked by Stephen Orlins, President of the National Committee on United States–China Relations, on December 12 at the 2024 Annual Conference of the thinktank Institute for China-America Studies (ICAS) in Washington, DC.
Stephen Orlins: We saw yesterday we saw an extraordinary offer by President-elect Trump inviting Xi Jinping to attend the inauguration - President-elect Trump's inauguration, which is virtually unprecedented in American history. You mentioned in your remark s how important it is to get off to a good start. How does China plan to react to this? Will Xi Jinping come? Will China send a senior level delegation? If so, who?
Qiu Wenxing: Thank you. I think that is one of the most challenging, maybe the most challenging question I have today. But to be frank I I can only say from that report it demonstrates the significance of the you know Communications between the two sides at various levels, even at the Presidential levels…I can follow my U.S. colleagues’ practice - I will not confirm and I will not deny, but and we just hope that we are open to the communications and if that report is real it shows tha the President-elect’s transitional team attach greater importance to the working relations between the two presidents and between Chinese government and the transition teams. I think that is a welcome signal and we looking forward you know to working not only with the transition team and of course the Biden because we know there is only one president you know at one time so that is our goal to make this relationship you know have a smooth transition and then early next year we can have a good start.
In Beijing, Mao Ning, the spokeswoman of China’s foreign ministry, had nothing to comment, according to the South China Morning Post.
Then, in an influential report, the Wall Street Journal reported, “Xi Jinping isn’t planning to attend Donald Trump’s inauguration next month, but he might send a senior official to represent him,” citing unidentified “people close to Beijing’s thinking.” The Journal added that “The people close to Beijing’s thinking said Xi isn’t going to fly to Washington to celebrate Trump’s win, especially in light of the incoming American leader’s tariff threats to China.”
CBS News later further reported that “Chinese President Xi Jinping is not expected to travel to Washington next month as an inauguration guest of President-elect Donald Trump,” citing “two sources familiar with the planning.” The report added that “China's ambassador to the U.S. and his spouse are expected to attend the Jan. 20 event, as is standard practice. Sources told CBS News that additional officials from Beijing may join them.”
Despite the ambiguity of the sources, Xi-will-not-come seemingly became indisputable truth. CNN was quick to churn out an analysis piece on December 13 saying “Xi’s RSVP is a snub to Trump,” claiming “sources on Thursday confirmed Xi wouldn’t attend” without naming any.
U.S. experts including Danny Russel and Yun Sun agree the likelihood of Xi’s acceptance of Trump’s invitation is low, as the Associated Press reported on Dec. 13.
Only that Donald Trump hasn’t heard of the snub. On December 16, at a televised press conference, a journalist framed Xi-will-not-come as a fact and asked Trump is the President-elect is disappointed at Xi’s no-show and Trump said he hasn’t received a response.
Q: Are you disappointed that China’s Xi won't be at the inauguration?
Trump: I don't know that he won't be at the inauguration. I mean I haven't really spoken to him about it. I don't know that, actually. I would say that if he'd like to come I'd love to have him. But there's been nothing much discussed. I have had discussions with him - letters etc etc, at a very high level. You know we had a very good relationship until covid. Covid didn't end the relationship but it was a bridge too far for me but uh if but if he'd like to come I'd certainly be…just so you understand he hasn't said one way or the other because a lot of people say “he won't come.” “he will come,” people think he will come, he won't come. It's something we barely discussed, just about didn't discuss but I have had, especially through letters, some very good conversations because China and the United States can together solve all of the problems of the world if you think about it. So it's very important and you know he was a friend of mine. I mean he was here for a long time right in that spot except sitting in a very comfortable chair he wasn't standing like you are. But we spent hours and hours talking and you know he's an amazing guy. The press hates when I say that but he's an amazing person.
For the past two weeks, on the Chinese side, the expert and media community remains conspiculously silent. I have been unable to locate any meaningful public comment on the matter.
Today, Ming Jinwei, now an officially-celebrated public opinion leader with no official links to the Chinese authorities, through his domestically influential WeChat blog 明叔杂谈 Ming Shu Za Tan/Uncle Ming’s Remarks injected himself to the debate.
Ming used to work for 12 years on international news reporting for Xinhua News Agency and then a number of years at multiple Chinese technology giants, but now has no discernable employment in the Chinese state apparatus. In recent years, the Chinese authorities apparently hold his WeChat blog in high regard by inviting him in his capacity as the blog’s writer to many official forums.
In this WeChat blog post, Ming offered well-rounded analysis that could even serve as some sort of guidelines for the Chinese and U.S. teams to figure it out.
Overall, while Trump's invitation for Chinese leaders to visit the U.S. is primarily for his personal political interests and the national interests of the United States, it also reflects, to some extent, Trump's respect for and acknowledgment of China's increasingly elevated national status and international influence.
So, does the Chinese side agree to go or not? If they choose not to attend, there will certainly be ample reasons, such as the fact that China has never had such a precedent. Moreover, considering Trump's "unpredictability," not attending would reduce a lot of uncertainty and risk. Meanwhile, if they do attend, it will be a situation where "benefits and risks coexist." The key is how to define and obtain these benefits while managing the associated risks.
Assuming the Chinese side accepts Trump's invitation, they can clarify from the outset that this move is not intended to flatter Trump personally but to enhance communication between the two great powers of China and the United States, to promote cooperation between them, and to deepen mutual understanding and friendship between the peoples of China and the United States. Through this gesture, China can achieve "three goals with one arrow":
First, give Trump “face,” accumulating some positive factors for subsequent Sino-U.S. negotiations and consultations.
Second, convey goodwill to various sectors of American society and the American people, breaking the negative rhetoric propagated by some in the U.S. regarding "Sino-U.S. rivalry."
Third, demonstrate to countries around the world that China is a responsible major power willing to work with the U.S. to promote healthy, stable, and sustainable development of Sino-U.S. relations. China's actions in Sino-U.S. relations align with the interests of both peoples and meet the expectations of countries worldwide.
If China accepts Trump's invitation, it will also need to use the next three weeks to negotiate an outcome list that both sides can accept for this event. This outcome could involve positive statements on principles regarding the development of Sino-U.S. relations or clear consensus on specific issues. For the Chinese public, as long as such an event can safeguard China's national interests and dignity while providing tangible benefits to Chinese enterprises and individuals, everyone will surely support it.
If China agrees to Trump's invitation, there is much consideration needed regarding their activities in the U.S. I have seen presidential inaugurations in America; they are very lengthy and include singing the national anthem and prayers led by clergy. If Chinese leaders participate throughout the event, it may not be necessary. One possible option is for the Chinese delegation to accept Trump's invitation for a visit to the U.S. and hold talks and meetings with Trump and his team; however, on January 20, 2025, Chinese leaders could choose to engage with a broader segment of American society while allowing other delegation members to attend Trump's inauguration ceremony. This approach would emphasize that this visit is aimed at friendship between the peoples of China and the U.S., while also avoiding any impression that China is taking sides in domestic U.S. political struggles between Republicans and Democrats. Additionally, it would prevent Chinese leaders from wasting significant time on various ceremonial activities at Trump's inauguration.
Regarding Trump's "unpredictability," it can be managed through both sides' working teams establishing preliminary agreements to avoid any sudden moves from the U.S., while also preparing contingency plans in case of unexpected actions from the U.S. Furthermore, if there are concerns that Trump might "go back on his word" after this visit, China can firmly occupy a moral high ground by emphasizing its willingness to responsibly manage differences between China and the U.S., aiming to return Sino-U.S. relations to a healthy, stable, and sustainable trajectory. If the U.S. ultimately proves "untrustworthy," this can clearly demonstrate to people worldwide that any damage to Sino-U.S. relations does not lie with China but with Trump and his team. As for security and protocol issues related to this visit, there are certainly professional teams considering these matters; as long as they are handled professionally, meticulously, and without fail, it will be sufficient.
Finally, I would like to emphasize that for significant decisions like this one, we should trust in the capabilities of relevant professional teams. As ordinary people, our information is limited and our considerations may not be comprehensive; our analyses often resemble seeing only a small part of a larger picture. Regardless of what decisions these professional teams make, the vast majority of people in China will undoubtedly choose to stand by their country and government.
In case you want my two cents: Based on all available information, yes Beijing may, at the end of day, choose to play it safe, but at this momement I’m not convinced it has ruled out accepting Trump’s invitation.
And by the way in a very unscientific poll in a pretty good group, two thirds believe it’s time to take the bold choice.
Finally, a totally unrelated development that has evaded media reporting. Lu Kang, vice minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China’s Central Committee (IDCPC), said in a public forum on strengthening people-to-people friendship between China and the U.S. on December 20
This week, China has comprehensively relaxed and optimized its transit visa exemption policy for multiple countries, including the United States. We will continue to introduce measures in areas such as visas, direct flights, and payment systems to facilitate personnel exchanges and promote cultural interactions. This will help build more bridges and pave more roads for civil exchanges and interactions between the peoples of the two countries, encouraging them to engage more, visit each other more frequently, and communicate more.
It’s not known if visa-free travels for all U.S. passport holders could be in the cards, as the “ABC” (America, Britain, and Canada) are now the only major Western countries left out from Beijing’s unprecedented and expanding visa waiver program.
