Aug 2, 2022Liked by Zichen Wang

Is there any data on the degree to which speculation is linked to house prices? Anecdotally, it seems that many people who have one apartment own multiple apartments, and at least some of them sit vacant for speculation purposes. But how much? Even these guys don't seem to know. Does anyone?

Also, while these guys are making reasonable arguments, they seem to downplay the fact that many real estate developers have been extraordinarily cavalier and mismanaged. They also seem overly (naively?) confident that the central government would ever be willing to admit to a mistake or do a reversal on a policy they have taken a strong stance on supporting--particularly in terms of 'dynamic Covid-Zero' but also in terms of the 'three red lines' policy. An about face seems incredibly unlikely, though some easing around the edges may be possible.

Expand full comment

I don't think I have come across any data on speculation, which would be difficult if not impossible to define in the first place. But Chinese localities do implement strict rules on how many apartments one can own in the respective jurisdictions.

Expand full comment