Great article! I think it’s well past time to have the conversation.
The question is not…can you trust China? But can you trust the United States? A small political entity like Taiwan cannot be without a sponsor in the coming multipolar.
As it is, our ability to secure any deal is a wasting asset.
In terms of reneging, it’s true there is no higher power for Taiwan to appeal to if Beijing should renege.
Therefore, Taiwan and Beijing should work out a deal that makes sense for both.
I’ve had a mainland friend say to me, the best thing Taiwan can do for its continued autonomy is to be really well-governed. Giving Beijing no reason to interfere is the best security guarantee.
I don’t believe in the comic book evil version of Beijing. I really don’t think they mind if Taiwan has free speech or gay pride parades. The amount of control appropriate for 1.4 billion may be higher than for 23 million. However, we should have good discussion prior to a deal to find out where Beijings red lines are. Probably no succession, no chaos and of course no foreign collusion. If we can do that Beijing will be happy enough to let the cow eat the grass.
Dr. Li's proposal is the most institutionally detailed version of a One Country Two Systems framework for Taiwan anyone has published in years, and the sequence Pekingnology documents here, two TAO press conferences where state media reporters raised the essays and Beijing declined to reject a single term, makes the surrounding signal as interesting as the text itself.
I've written a full response from Hong Kong engaging directly with the proposal. I agree with the constitutional architecture. I push back on the Hong Kong diagnosis, specifically the reading of what happened with Article 45 and the 2014 universal suffrage vote, and I argue the semiconductor leverage Dr. Li is implicitly relying on is a melting ice cube that changes the timeline for everything he's proposing.
Your heart ❤️ is in the right place and you are knowledgeable
But
Can you really trust China and Xi?
Recent world events have reminded us that when push comes to shove it’s about who has the most power.
As you mention Hong Kong didn’t work out well and it need not have gone that way for China to both honor its word and get what it needed from Hong Kong.
Should Ukraine 🇺🇦 trust Putin and Russia 🇷🇺? I think not. Security guarantees? From who? Again look at Ukraine. Would anyone trust USA guarantees? I think not. NATO? Even if given do they have the capability? For Taiwan? 🇹🇼. There is no one. So like Blanche Dubois they will depend on the kindness of strangers ? In the constitution? Even if they did Xi could violate Putin put parts of eastern Ukraine into the Russian constitution. Kind of makes peace hard.
Maybe the thought is they will get absorbed eventually so why not surrender now and get the best terms ?
Great article! I think it’s well past time to have the conversation.
The question is not…can you trust China? But can you trust the United States? A small political entity like Taiwan cannot be without a sponsor in the coming multipolar.
As it is, our ability to secure any deal is a wasting asset.
In terms of reneging, it’s true there is no higher power for Taiwan to appeal to if Beijing should renege.
Therefore, Taiwan and Beijing should work out a deal that makes sense for both.
I’ve had a mainland friend say to me, the best thing Taiwan can do for its continued autonomy is to be really well-governed. Giving Beijing no reason to interfere is the best security guarantee.
I don’t believe in the comic book evil version of Beijing. I really don’t think they mind if Taiwan has free speech or gay pride parades. The amount of control appropriate for 1.4 billion may be higher than for 23 million. However, we should have good discussion prior to a deal to find out where Beijings red lines are. Probably no succession, no chaos and of course no foreign collusion. If we can do that Beijing will be happy enough to let the cow eat the grass.
What does 國 really mean? Country is a very loose translation.
Dr. Li's proposal is the most institutionally detailed version of a One Country Two Systems framework for Taiwan anyone has published in years, and the sequence Pekingnology documents here, two TAO press conferences where state media reporters raised the essays and Beijing declined to reject a single term, makes the surrounding signal as interesting as the text itself.
I've written a full response from Hong Kong engaging directly with the proposal. I agree with the constitutional architecture. I push back on the Hong Kong diagnosis, specifically the reading of what happened with Article 45 and the 2014 universal suffrage vote, and I argue the semiconductor leverage Dr. Li is implicitly relying on is a melting ice cube that changes the timeline for everything he's proposing.
The piece is here: https://theescalatorhk.com/a-response-to-dr-li-this-is-our-chance-not-our-cautionary-tale/
Your heart ❤️ is in the right place and you are knowledgeable
But
Can you really trust China and Xi?
Recent world events have reminded us that when push comes to shove it’s about who has the most power.
As you mention Hong Kong didn’t work out well and it need not have gone that way for China to both honor its word and get what it needed from Hong Kong.
Should Ukraine 🇺🇦 trust Putin and Russia 🇷🇺? I think not. Security guarantees? From who? Again look at Ukraine. Would anyone trust USA guarantees? I think not. NATO? Even if given do they have the capability? For Taiwan? 🇹🇼. There is no one. So like Blanche Dubois they will depend on the kindness of strangers ? In the constitution? Even if they did Xi could violate Putin put parts of eastern Ukraine into the Russian constitution. Kind of makes peace hard.
Maybe the thought is they will get absorbed eventually so why not surrender now and get the best terms ?
Not optimistic